首页> 外文OA文献 >Fiskalna održivost zemalja članica EU u kontekstu trenutne financijske krize
【2h】

Fiskalna održivost zemalja članica EU u kontekstu trenutne financijske krize

机译:当前金融危机背景下欧盟成员国的财政可持续性

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务,本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文,但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁,仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况,如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。

摘要

This paper tackles the question of fiscal sustainability in current times of financial/economic crisis. Our literature review leads us to conclusion that when fiscal sustainability is being considered, putting fixed limit to public debt to GDP and budget balance to GDP ratio is a too simplified solution and that sustainable fiscal policy might be defined with public debt-to-GDP and budget balance to GDP ceilings, but taking into account some underlying country specific parameters. Our empirical analysis shows that most EU Member States entered year 2008 with healthy public finances. However, most EU Member States now face fiscal difficulties. Even more: almost all EU Member States would have to decrease budget deficit in 2009 and 2010, in order to achieve sustainable budget position. The extensive jumps in fiscal deficits in 2009 and 2010, compared to 2007 (before crisis), are mainly due to lower fiscal incomes as a consequence of lower economic growth and policy measures for tackling financial/economic crisis. We argue that these changes in fiscal deficits are not sustainable. Our analysis shows that in 2009 about 2/3 of the economies in question should have budget surplus, taking into consideration other relevant macroeconomic variables, such as economic growth, etc. In 2010, however, a more loosened fiscal policy would be possible, but still significantly lower fiscal deficit than forecasted would be sustainable.
机译:本文解决了当前金融/经济危机时期的财政可持续性问题。我们的文献综述得出的结论是,考虑到财政可持续性时,将公共债务与GDP的固定限制和预算平衡与GDP的比率设置为一个过于简化的解决方案,并且可以用公共债务与GDP和预算余额与GDP上限之间的差额,但要考虑到一些基本国家/地区的特定参数。我们的经验分析表明,大多数欧盟成员国进入2008年都拥有健康的公共财政。但是,大多数欧盟成员国现在都面临财政困难。更重要的是:几乎所有欧盟成员国都必须在2009年和2010年减少预算赤字,以实现可持续的预算状况。与2007年(危机发生前)相比,2009年和2010年的财政赤字大幅增加,主要是由于经济增长下降和解决金融/经济危机的政策措施导致财政收入下降。我们认为,财政赤字的这些变化是不可持续的。我们的分析表明,考虑到其他相关的宏观经济变量(例如经济增长等),2009年约有2/3的相关经济体应有预算盈余。但是,2010年,可能会采取更加宽松的财政政策,但是财政赤字仍将大大低于预期的可持续水平。

著录项

代理获取

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号